Mortgage Rates Tick Up After Hitting a 3 Week Low. Here's What's Going On

Rates moved a little higher today, but the bigger story is where they've been sitting the past few days. As of last Friday, average top-tier mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since July 20th, according to Mortgage News Daily. If they'd dropped even 0.01% more today, it would have marked a new 3-week low. Instead, they edged up slightly.

As of today, here's where the numbers stand:

• 30 year fixed: 6.76% (up 0.02%)
• 15 year fixed: 6.27% (up 0.02%)
• 30 year FHA: 6.29% (up 0.01%)
• 30 year jumbo: 6.86% (up 0.01%)
• 7/6 SOFR ARM: 6.35% (up 0.05%)
• 30 year VA: 6.31% (up 0.01%)

Why rates ticked up

The move higher today traces back to rising oil prices. Throughout the Iran war, oil and mortgage rates have moved together fairly closely. Oil prices shape inflation expectations, and inflation is one of the main things the rate market watches. When oil moves up, rates often follow.

The bigger picture still looks decent

Even with today's uptick, rates remain much closer to the lower end of the range we've seen over the past 3 weeks. If there's any positive movement on the war or diplomatic front, that would likely pull rates back down. There's also a separate wildcard this week: inflation reports are due out, and those numbers could push rates in either direction depending on what they show.

What this means if you're buying or selling

A 0.02% daily move isn't something to lose sleep over. The more useful takeaway is that rates have spent the last few weeks trending toward the lower end of their recent range, which is good news if you've been waiting on the sidelines. If you're actively house hunting or thinking about listing, it's worth keeping an eye on this week's inflation data since that's the next real catalyst for where rates head next.

Questions about how today's rates affect your specific numbers, whether you're buying, selling, or just running scenarios? Reach out and let's talk through it.